Gramps Braggin Rights Pre-Season Predictions - AAA Division II prognostications 9/16/2021

  Per my introduction, prognostications are based upon a mathematical equation that includes returning player VPS, defensive point differential, points allowed, and returnee scoring.  The result of this equation is an estimate of the winning percentage for this coming year.

Included in the statistics are the projected overall record and estimated team rating.  Where indicated, I have listed the PrepHoops Missouri player rankings.  I do not try to assess player abilities.... you can get a great analysis at PrepHoops Missouri by Earl Austin Jr.  

I work with statistics that predict future success.  For each team, I look at the players returning, their statistics coaching, past success, and why I think the model prediction is on target for this coming year.

VPS is a highly correlated player value score for how that individual player will do on the basketball court.  Players with great Value Player Scores are not born, they are made through individual effort, training sessions, coaching, and lots of hard work.  WORK = SUCCESS (VPS).  The more your work, the better you become as a player.

VPS team ratings correlate highly with the team's winning percentage.   I want to put a positive spin on team prognostications, but in some cases, low VPS ratings indicate poor on-court performance and result in poor team records.  There is no intent to demean, but often statistics speak for themselves.

Disclaimer:  I used the St. Louis Post Dispatch team rosters and statistics from the previous season.  Some players may transfer to other schools.  When I am aware of those transfers, I will indicate so.  If you see a significant player that has transferred or an up-and-comer that is entering high school, let me know and I will repost with an adjusted analysis. 

Thank you to coaches for supplying me with team statistics that were not available on the P-D high school team page.  I appreciate the trust coaches put in me to handle their statistics with fair assessments.

The  AAA Division II League Analysis:

Corrected 9/26/2021 9:30pm

I recently learned of the transfer of two top scorers from Christian to other schools.  I have changed their analysis below.  The Archdiocesan Athletic Association division II had two dominant teams, just the AAA division I,   St, Dominic, and Christian O'Fallon but with transfers, St. Dom's maybe the top team.  Christian won the conference last year, but might struggle to compete this year with St. Dom's finally getting the upper hand.




 


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