Gramps Braggin Rights Missouri Boys Basketball prognostications - Metro Catholic Conference 9/17/21

 I launched my St. Louis Area Boys basketball prognostications with the two Archdiocesan Athletic Association conferences yesterday, two very good programs but the elite of the elite is the Metro Catholic Conference with traditional powerhouse teams like Christian Brothers College (CBC), Chaminade, DeSmet, Vianney and St. Louis University High (SLUH).  There has not been a better conference top to bottom in the state for many years.  Even "doormat" Vianney and SLUH have been top 25 state-ranked teams, even with losing records.  

I base much of my pre-season prediction on VPS, or Value Player Score.  It is a little bit of chicken and egg debate as to how teams and individuals get high VPS ratings.   Most good players are getting additional training and development outside of their high school program, drilling incessantly until most basketball offensive and defensive basics are front of mind.   By the time these players reach the high school program, they are excellent players who have worked to get to a higher level of play.

But great high school programs work on the areas that drive higher VPS.... solid shooting form, better shot selection, rebounding and blocking out, great passing, free throw technique, avoiding turnovers, playing defense with their feet, and not getting cheap reach-in fouls.  The best teams win with 30+ rebounds, under 10 turnovers, a high percentage of points in the paint, 35+% three-point shooting.  In other words, good coaching can elevate VPS ratings for players too.   So individual training and solid coaching both elevate VPS.

The Metro Catholic Conference schools get the best local players and tend to dominate the St. Louis area with basketball excellence.  Public schools work at a disadvantage, often losing great prospects to private schooling.  For many young men of color, a scholarship to a MCC school is a God-send... a ticket to a better life.  The debate goes on and on but such is life.  

So who wins in the MCC this year?  Chaminade dominated very good CBC and DeSmet teams but have lost a couple of junior star players to transfers.  CBC has a great young group coming up and SLUH will be much improved.  My apologies if I missed a transfer or addition.  Let me know and I will adjust the analysis.

Here's my analysis:

 

 Per my introduction, prognostications are based upon a mathematical equation that includes returning player VPS, defensive point differential, points allowed, and returnee scoring.  The result of this equation is an estimate of the winning percentage for this coming year.

Included in the statistics are the projected overall record and estimated team rating.  Where indicated, I have listed the PrepHoops Missouri player rankings.  I do not try to assess player abilities.... you can get a great analysis at PrepHoops Missouri by Earl Austin Jr.  

I work with statistics that predict future success.  For each team, I look at the players returning, their statistics coaching, past success, and why I think the model prediction is on target for this coming year.

VPS is a highly correlated player value score for how that individual player will do on the basketball court.  Players with great Value Player Scores are not born, they are made through individual effort, training sessions, coaching, and lots of hard work.  WORK = SUCCESS (VPS).  The more your work, the better you become as a player.

VPS team ratings correlate highly with the team's winning percentage.   I want to put a positive spin on team prognostications, but in some cases, low VPS ratings indicate poor on-court performance and result in poor team records.  There is no intent to demean, but often statistics speak for themselves.

Disclaimer:  I used the St. Louis Post Dispatch team rosters and statistics from the previous season.  Some players may transfer to other schools.  When I am aware of those transfers, I will indicate so.  If you see a significant player that has transferred or an up-and-comer that is entering high school, let me know and I will repost with an adjusted analysis. 

Thank you to coaches for supplying me with team statistics that were not available on the P-D high school team page.  I appreciate the trust coaches put in me to handle their statistics with fair assessments.