Updated: 10/3/2021 114:45am
I was advised by @PHLathletics that Cleveland ROTC and Northwest Academy have closed and Gateway Science is an independent charter school and is not part of the PHL. The revision is reflected below.
So far, I have received great reviews from coaches, writers, and basketball experts who think the Pre-season analysis is very beneficial. If you are a coach who has not taken statistics seriously, take note. If you are a sportswriter, feel free to use my blogs to build your own prognostications. Trust but verify.
At times, I can be a little snotty with people, especially people that think my ratings are a joke. That happens early in the season when teams have not played many games and the statistics are still on thin ice. I might be proven correct over time but I just do not like snippy comments. It is like Marty McFly in "Back to the Future" when someone calls him "Chicken". It just set him off and it does the same to me.
So I took a wrong turn the other day and commented on a football "poll" and got this snippy response to my quick statistical-based rating of local teams. Not only did he belittle my response but he told me Vashon had played nobody, denigrating two, storied high schools with strong football traditions that have dropped off this fall. And he makes fun of Vashon, an up-and-coming football program, who I had rated above Union. I would call that Twitter Bullying. He beats me up and throws three good high schools under the bus in one nasty bully tweet.
So maybe my initial statistics-based ratings were horrible, but not that bad... not to deserve that kind of response and slamming of three honorable schools. We have too much of this "in your face" crap on social media. There is a lot of good on social media too, but the politically incorrect slams that people make can be disheartening, if not disgusting.
One thing I know is what I am good at and what I am not. I know statistics and over time I can get the winner right 80% of any two opponents. I do not make great videos and I am not qualified to do a good job of evaluating talent. I rate teams on current and historical stats. As Sgt. Joe Friday says in Dragnet, "Just the fact, ma'am."
Some of these "opinion-based" sports ranking polls are NOT very good, but you couldn't tell them that. It's what I call a
"blind spot". These guys are great at videos but just okay on polls and podcasts and poor at player evaluations but they want you to think they are A1 in everything. They don't realize that you have to put in the time studying players and statistics to do a good podcast.... you can't fly by the seat of your pants or your podcast becomes fodder for lockerroom jokes.
Someone like Earl Austin Jr. spends countless hours in the gym and studying videos to make his Prep Hoops Missouri player evaluations. You are as good as the work you put into it. So before you call my rankings "horrible", straighten up your own house.
So maybe Vashon is not that good at football but I actually think they will beat Union in class four district two play-offs. Their program is emulating the excellent work of the basketball team.
What I do know is that Vashon basketball is untouchable and will be at the top of my rankings again this winter. Tony Irons has a dynasty going and it just seems to gain momentum each year. Hopefully, Vashon will hit the national polls after some exciting games against nationally-ranked teams on their schedule this winter.
I guess technically, Carnahan at 3-0, was the PHL league "champ", although Vashon won another class 4 state title. Look for another one this year. I know a lot of coaches hate the fact that any PHL student may opt to attend any PHL school so the basketball talent tends to head to Vashon. I don't begrudge Vashon that... there needs to be a shining star in the city and Vashon is that bright spot in the sky over St. Louis. There is still a lot of talent at the other PHL schools. So do not count any of these teams out.
So, enough pontificating. I will say that my Public School conference ratings are lacking in some statistics since several teams do not get their stats into the Post-Dispatch high school database. If you see a player has moved or transferred, let me know and I will update the blog.
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