St. Louis Area Pre-Season Ratings and Predictions - 11/12/2021

 It is getting close.  It's almost time.  The first tip-offs for Jamborees and full games start next week.

There is always speculation about which teams are going to be good and which teams are not.  I have seen some interesting pre-season rankings of various conferences that raised my eyebrows.  Most of these polls are speculative.  They do not put a lot of effort into digging into the teams, past statistics, who is returning, etc. etc.  They get a lot of feedback, some of it "likes" and some of it hooting and hollering.

I do not like to speculate.  If you have followed me this fall, I have spent the past two months analyzing most of the St. Louis area conferences and a few over in Kansas City.  I am hoping www.810varsity.com will pick up those analyses before I publish anything over here.  I have not gotten all of the conferences and I probably should but I rely on good statistics from the Post-Dispatch or KCSports to formulate my ratings.  I apologize to a few really good teams, like Confluence Academy who are independent but will have an outstanding team this year.  Maybe Brian Karvinen will throw me a bone and I can slip in their analysis before the season begins.

And formulate is a good term.  If you go back to my original post, you can find the generic formula I used and links to the predictions for each conference.  I used returnee scoring, returnee player VPS, team point differential, and defensive points given up in my equation.  Time will tell if this formula will actually work well.  I will know how good it is next March when I compare my winning percentage and ratings to where the teams end up. 

There are some great teams near the top and you could probably flip a coin on who would win.  I have two teams going undefeated, which is a nearly impossible task, but both Pattonville and Westminster have awesome talent and could go deep into their respective state championship playoffs.  Pattonville, in class six, will have to get by a deep CBC squad, which will be a tall order.  Westminster will probably end up in a rematch of the Vashon-Westminster class four final again this coming March.

And why are not Vashon or CBC going undefeated?  Because these teams go out of their way to play nationally ranked teams.  I am sure Vashon will beat all of the Missouri teams they face.  They might lose a couple in national holiday tournaments but they might not, too.  CBC has so much talent with Robert Martin, Larry Hughes Jr and company and they added the 7' 1" freshman, John Bol, who will bring an inside presence they have lacked for a couple of years.  And do not count out Chaminade.  They lost Tarris Reed and Damien Mayo to transfers, but the Red Devils will still be very good.

So here is a summary of the 80 or so teams that I analyze this fall.  You can hoot and hollar all you want but please keep the tone positive.  These pre-season ratings are speculative, even when you add up all the mathematics and run the calculations.

My pre-season analysis by conference is Gramp's Braggin' Rights 2021-2022 HS Basketball Predictions - Intro to my St. Louis Area prognostications (gramps2022missourihshoops.blogspot.com)

The list does not include all St. Louis area teams: