Gramp's Braggin' Rights 2021-2022 HS Basketball Predictions - Intro to my St. Louis Area prognostications
It is still football season, but I cannot wait for the Missouri winter high school basketball season to start. For those that follow me, I had all 500 + boys and girls Missouri basketball teams ranked, in all six classes, using a "Sagarin" type comparative algorithm to give each team a quantitative rating.
Using the ratings for districts, sectionals, and state play-offs, I managed to predict the winner of nearly 80% of every Missouri boys and girls playoff game last Spring. There is not a poll like this in any state across the US of A that does this.... Gramp's Braggin' Rights Ratings are one of a kind. Check it out HERE. I will have my first Missouri ratings out around the beginning of December. Last year's boys and girls can be found HERE.
Not only do I dabble in ratings, I like to predict season success using statistical equations. I found that VPS (Value Player Score) highly correlated to team success. Check that out HERE.
The number of returnees and the percent of returning scoring plays a big part in the coming year's success. And, you cannot forget defense so I threw point differential and points allowed into the formula. Which led me to a formula for predicting this coming season's winning percentage. It's a weighted average, for your math majors, and looks something like this:
Winning % = 0.75*VPS factor*Log VPS+0.15*Point Differential factor*2021 Point Differential + 0.1*Points Allowed factor*2021 Points Allowed+0.05*Returnee scoring
I have not shared the actual formula factors because I think this formula is the next best thing after sliced bread. Consider the formula my proprietary intellectual property. I used the formula on the last 22 years of Eureka Wildcat team statistics and came within a win or loss of every season record for all twenty-plus years.
So, with that analysis in place, I took a look at return squads for 2021-2022, starting with the AAA division I boys conference. I rely on the Post-Dispatch boys basketball section and I know that the P-D staff relies on the coaches to submit good information. For the most part, the coaches do a good job and I am building the "wall of shame" coaches that DO NOT fill in good data.
Disclaimer: I just look at statistics. I know a few of the players, but if you want in-depth player evaluations, head over to Prephoops Missouri and the esteemed Earl Austin Jr. for his analysis. Earl always has his finger on the pulse of St. Louis and Missouri basketball. You cannot go wrong with Earl, but you also cannot get the statistical grounding of Gramps. You need both to be fully educated on the Missouri basketball scene (or so I would like to think).
So here is the first of many St. Louis area conference analyses. I looked at who graduated, how much scoring was returning, and what the VPS for each returning player was and rolled those numbers into the Winning Prediction formula for the analysis below.
You can find each league in the links below. My focus is on St. Louis area conferences. If the link does not work, I have not posted that league analysis yet:
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