Gramps Braggin Rights Missouri Boys Predictions for March 17-18-19

 So far the Gramps Braggin Rights predictions have been on target for both boys and girls.  Overall, the prediction of winners has been around 85-88% but as I have stated earlier, the closer you get to the finales, the lower the prediction percentage.  The games tend to be more closely matched and more "upsets" are possible.

That has been a fact of life since I started my rating system four or five years ago, but because of the current MSHSAA tournament seeding, that may not be as true.  Some of the best games were district finals or early-round games in the state tournament.  THE TWO BEST TEAMS MAY NOT BE PLAYING IN THE FINALS.  The best team might win the state title but the second-best team may have been eliminated by the best team in an earlier round. 

So given that situation, here are my picks for next Thursday and Friday's games.  You can see that there are some very close games (spreads of five or less) and some are what I would call "blowouts" (spreads over 15 points).  

There are eight really good games coming up on March 17th and 18th for the Missouri boys and girls class four, five, and six tournaments and then four games that will probably be over by half-time.  No disrespect to these teams but it is a symptom of the district and state tournament assignments when some districts are stacked with highly ranked teams and others are less competitive.  Without appropriate seeding of the state tournament brackets, a weaker team might move to a semi-final game because of a good draw while the best teams might be in the other bracket, eliminating each other before their time.  It would be like putting Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, and Kansas, all #1 seeds, in the same regional NCAA bracket and putting Jacksonville, Delaware, St. Peter's, and Cal State Fullerton, all #15 seeds in another bracket with other 13, 14 and 16 seed teams.  That sounds pretty ridiculous, doesn't it?

But that might happen with the inflexible geographic alignment that MSHSAA uses.  It happens in both the strong basketball areas of Kansas City, Springfield, and St. Louis who are often under-represented in the state tournament, and it can happen in rural adjacent districts.  It even happens within some of these major population areas as illustrated by class five districts three and four, where district three was packed with Westminster, De Smet and Cardinal Ritter (122 district rating) and St. Dominic, the only winning team, in district 4 (104 district rating).  There are inumerable examples after example in boys and girls, from class one to six.

Enough with the sermons...  Here are my picks for the Boys games this coming week.  I will post the Girls in a later blog:

CBC vs Chaminade - CBC and Chaminade split their two games, each winning by six.  Rob Martin has carried the Cadets all year, even when 7" John Bol and sharpshooter Larry Hughes, Jr. has off nights.  Chaminade has a quartet of scorers in Daniels, Straughter, Sinobad and Ward.  The Cadets will win if Bol and Hughes are ON.  Chaminade will win if they aren't.  I think Coach Tatum will have CBC ready to win.  CBC by five.

Staley vs. Nixa - Staley starters shoot over 40% from three and the bench contributes 15 to 20 points.  This game could get down to who has the better point guard play, Kyan Evans of Staley, or Collin Ruffin, of Nixa, both Missouri class six player of the year candidates.  If Nixa guards the outside shots, that might leave Emmanuel Byrd open inside to do battle with Colton Berry and Jarret Nelson.  In one of the closest matched games next week, I give a slight nod to Staley by three.

New Madrid County Central vs. Vashon - NMCC guard Shamar Williamson was on fire against Lift for Life.  Vashon's freshman guard Trey Williams and junior Mason Mosely are both long distance threats that Vashon hasn't had in previous championship runs.  Can 6'5" super soph Jadis Jones and 6'4" Marcellus Phillips, both NMCC forwards, hold down Vashon's leapers in  6'6"  juniors Kennard Davis, and the 6'5" Cameron Stovall and Jayden Nicholson?  Probably not.  Vashon marches on with 15 point win.

Father Tolton vs. Pembroke Hill - Tolton upset Blair Oaks, or did they?  Tolton is a great team, with unstoppable 6'11" power forward Jevon Porter and 6'4" Tahki Chievous, 6'9" Evens Appolon, and 6'7"  Justin Boyer, so Pembroke Hill is facing a tall, tall order.  Porter can hit the three or take it to the hoop which adds to the defensive problems for Pembroke. Super frosh guard Aaron Rowe and junior guard James Lee will have their hands full with guards Darin and Devin Conley and 6'5" Quinton Conley, but the Trailblazers have too many weapons for Pembroke.  Tolton by 18.

Cardinal Ritter vs. Webster Groves -  As Matty Enright goes, so goes the Statesmen.  When teams shut down the lefty WG point guard, Webster struggles, even with the sharpshooting of Ethan Chartrand and the inside game of Iziah Purvey.  Can Webster's intense defensive pressure keep down Ritter's top scorers 6'8" Robert Lewis and 6'5" Braxton Stacker and off the glass?  Ritter is hot, going 12-1 after an 8-8 start.  This may be the most competitive of games on the 18th.  You could flip a coin but I will take Webster by 2.

Springfield Catholic vs. Helias Catholic - This will be another hotly contested, evenly matched games.  Helias, 17-13, has played many of the top teams around the state.  The Irish have also had a strong SW Missouri schedule.  Helias guard, Desmond White, dropped 42 points vs. William Chrisman last Saturday. The Irish' Zach Howell and Liam O'Reilly were nearly unstoppable vs. Bolivar and it seems like the 24-6 Irish have a slight edge and the game is almost a home game in Springfield.  Springfield Catholic by five.