Why is Vashon rated so high? Because they are good! 3/01/2022

 I have had a couple of questions from @Swish98346791 that I need to answer on the blog.  Somethings are just too complicated for a 280 character Tweet.

First off, I want to thank Swish for his polite inquiries.  My first encounters with him were the mud-slinging type of Tweets where you trash someone's post and don't have anything to say other than be nasty.  We got over that and I appreciate his thoughtful questions.  I hope everyone will be as congenial by giving me some meat to chew on.  By meat, I mean who beat who and links to scores that I might not have.  Just throwing bones at Gramps Braggin Rights ratings does not cut it.  I need meat or the ratings don't get better.

Swish had two questions and I will try to answer both with a mathematical analysis that I use for select teams to verify my model is still accurate.

Question 1: Could I ask why Vashon is rated so high? 4 losses and according to maxpreps an average strength of schedule.

Well, Swish, first of all, you need to realize that MaxPreps, as hard as they try, do not have a good ratings system. It basically sucks. They use winning record as a heavy weight in their rating so a class one team with a 25-1 record might be in the top five in the entire state. I report Eureka scores on MaxPreps but I ignore their rating system. I tried to communicate with their ratings people but got no response. So FORGET MaxPreps ratings and strength of schedule.

Question 2 (or a statement): I think winner of district 9 in class 4 is your state champ. Vashon isn't as good as the teams they have had in the past. They are still very good, just not as dominant this year.

Okay, Swish, this is where ratings and strength of schedule are built in my model. I have attached the schedules of the two District 9 teams you allude to, Blair Oaks and Father Tolton, and the Vashon's schedule with scores. I also have the spread, the game rating (which is the spread plus the opponents rating) and the Strength of Schedule (average of the opponents rating).

I will say that both Father Tolton and Blair Oaks are fine teams and are within a whisker of Vashon (four-point spread) and any of the three could be class four champ. The teams fall off after these three. It is unfortunate that Father Tolton and Blair Oaks have to play each other in districts rather than a final four.

Let's start with Blair Oaks. The Falcons have the best record at 25-1 and a weighted rating of about 144. Key wins include Father Tolton, Tulsa Union, Nixa and Cardinal Ritter. Their one loss was to East St. Louis on the east side, obviously a tough place to play. Their strength of schedule is 116 which I think is drug down by the lack of good competition in the middle of the state. There were a few good teams (Monroe City, Ozark, Fatima, New Madrid Central, Helias) and a lot of fluff. They could go all the way but I wonder how battle-tested they really are.

Father Tolton is rated a 141 with a sound 128 strength of schedule.  Tolton traveled quite a bit and had some very good competition at home.  Key victories include SLUH, Chaminade, Webster Groves, Cardinal Ritter, and Covington TN.  Losses to some great teams include Nixa, Blair Oaks, Mascoutah IL, Memphis East, Berkmar and CBC.  Tolton is battle tested.  They may not beat Blair Oaks but it will be a state championship quality game.

Swish, you might be right about Vashon.  It is a down year for the Wolverines.  They might not have the depth and the skill sets that some past state championship teams have had, but they could easily win another state championship with this squad.  Coach Irons will have them ready for war and, if they don't have an awful night shooting, they will be tough to beat.  Vashon played the MOST difficult schedule of the three teams and maybe one of the most difficult of all Missouri teams.  Forget MaxPreps S.O.S.!   It is ShXt On a Shingle.  Significant wins include multiple Chicago giants like Tinley Park, St. Rita (twice) North Lawndale, and Whitney Young.  They also beat powerhouse Grand Island NE, Webster Groves (twice) and De Smet.  Those four loses were to Westminster (also 25-1), perenial national powerhouse Philadelphia Imhotep, Blue Valley NW KS, and East St. Louis over in their den.  So I have them rated at weighted rating of 148 with a strength of schedule (are you sitting down) of 133.  About 10 or 15 rating points higher than most Missouri schools.  I might even have their rating underweighted as their raw rating is 149. 

 

So, if you have money, place most of it on the Wolverines and a little on the district nine guys. Any one of them might win the class four title but I have an affinity for the young men in blue down off of Grand Boulevard and Cass Avenue. They are always the real deal.