Who's the #1 Boys Basketball team in the state of Missouri - Revisited 2/01/2022

 I cannot believe it already February and the basketball season is over half complete.  Teams have about four weeks to sort out and eliminate kinks in their offense and defense and get ready for the March run to a state title.

Every morning, I wake up to find another big upset.  Last night, Westminster Academy pulled off a buzzer beater to knock off vaunted CBC at the jamb-packed Westminster Academy gym.  The astounding part of this story is that CBC was cruising 20-5 after the first quarter and it looked like the Wildcats would take another big loss to a Metro Catholic Conference team, after being soundly beaten by De Smet at the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament in December.

But the Wildcats changed up their defense and ended up winning, 45-43, when a closely guarded junior forward, Kobi Williams nailed a step-back jumper from just inside the three-point line.  Some were hailing Westminster as the #1 team in the state or at least amongst small schools but wait a minute!  Don't a few other teams have a say in this?

I posted an analysis of the top eight teams last week and continue to build on that analysis.  I added Westminster and Blair Oaks, who annihilated Nixa by 26 last weekend.  There are many factors to look at in rating these top teams and they are all so good that they can go out and kill another ranked team or shut them down like Westminster did after it looked like the Wildcats were going to be blown out.

I look at the weighted average in my modeling, which gives more weight to some games amongst those top teams.  Prior to the Westminster game, I had CBC at 148 and Westminster at 140.  I added in the two-point difference several times in the model to bring up Westminster to 145 and bring CBC down to 146.  Why did I not add more weight to that win and put Westminster above CBC?  Because I look at the full season and look for consistency.  

I also look at the Strength of the Schedule too (S.O.S.).  CBC has played teams that are 10 points better than the teams that Westminster has played.  Being in the MCC will do that for CBC, De Smet and Chaminade.  The champion of that conference might have two or three losses.  I also look at key wins and key losses and so, while the model is statistically based, there is some SWAG (Surely Wild Ass Guess) with the weighting process.  And then there is the rating inflation game where teams run up the score (not suggesting any of these teams do that).  LOL

I have several tables below.  The first is a summary of the top ten teams in the state with their rank in my ratings, their raw rating, weighted rating, the strength of schedule, and key wins and losses.  Below that table, each team is listed with their schedule, won-loss record, and game ratings.

More games in February might help sort these top teams out but, then again, maybe not.  It might take a MSHSAA state tournament to decide who is really #1 in each class.  There will still be a debate about which is the best team in the state of Missouri.  

You can catch all the Missouri boys rankings HERE:



Below is each team's schedule with game ratings.  I tried to analyze my top ten and I threw Bolivar in there because some polls have them erroneously listed as the #1 team in class five.  I will try and go back and get a few more worthy teams like Webster Groves, Kickapoo, and a few others:


















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