March 12th Missouri Boys Predictions 3/12/2022
Well, out in Higginsville, Missouri, the Lafayette County Huskers almost proved me wrong again because I had Charleston rated 13 point favorites over the Huskers and Charleston eeked out a two-point win for the class three boys state championship. Hats off to both teams! I never doubted LafCo, as I dubbed them, I just had an incorrect formula in one of my reporting tables, so @higglcsports rattled my cage in January and I corrected my errant formula. The Huskers won 30 games this season. Quite the accomplishment and a second-place class three trophy to boot.
Even I am astounded by the accuracy of my ratings over the past two days. Normally, with great teams and very even competition, the prediction percentages go down from 90 to 80 to 70% as the tournament progresses. I have been checking actual game results with my posted boys and girls ratings and was hitting at about 88 to 90%. The past two days, my ratings proved accurate in 16 out of 16 games. The spread, like the Charleston-LafCo game, wasn't always close but I picked the winners in every boys and girls tournament game.
So here goes for March 12th. The competition gets even tougher so I expect more wrong predictions, but the real story is the competition, not this old man's ratings. These are all great teams so please do not be offended if I pick someone else over your favorite team. It is just pure statistics (as in "lies, damn lies, and statistics" as Mark Twain dubbed them). And, @Higglcsports, I don't mind if I get all of these wrong. LOL
Let's start with Boys. The girl's predictions are HERE:
Class One championship - No question in my mind... South Iron repeats. Their toughest game was vs. Bunker. Stanberry, as good as they have been all season, fall to the Panthers by 8.
Class One 3rd place game - St. Elizabeth gets the nod over Wellsville-Middleton by 5. This game could go down to the buzzer.
Class Two Championship - Norwood holds the slightest rating edge over Bernie (0.3 spread). That means it's a toss-up between two great class two teams. Flip a coin.
Class Two 3rd Place Game - Bishop Le Blond has a 1 point edge over Putnam County but this game is another nail-biter. Flip a coin.
Class Four Quarter-final games:
- New Madrid County Central is too much for Lift for Life. The spread is 5.5 but Lift for Life is on a roll, just like last year and this could be much closer and Lift for Life could be ready for another upset win.
- Mexico is the only undefeated team in the state but Vashon is rated 15 points better. Wolverines appear headed to another state title but Mexico will battle to the end.
- Father Tolton upset Blair Oaks and Willow Springs will be no match for the Trailblazers who are on a collision course for Vashon in the final.
- Richmond is a 1 point favorite over Pembroke Hill but this is another toss-up. The game is decided in the last minute or overtime. Flip a coin.
Class Five Quarter-final games:
- Webster Groves is too much for Cape Girardeau Central. Statesmen win by 8 as they try for another state championship.
- St. Dominic's has had a good run but Cardinal Ritter is on a tear and wins by 18 or more.
- Bolivar beat Springfield Catholic by two in their mid-season meeting. Bolivar takes control of this one in the final minutes. Could be another coin flip game.
- William Chrisman has the slightest of edges (+1.5) over Helias but the Crusaders are battle-tested and ready for an upset. Another coin flip game.
- CBC and SLUH know each other very well. As good as Nick Kramer and company might be, they don't have an answer for Martin, Hughes Jr and Bol and a deep, deep Cadet bench. CBC by 12.
- Chaminade has their hands full with Zumwalt South but pull away by 10 in the end.
- Lee's Summit West dream season-ending run of upsets ends here. Nixa is much to strong. Eagles by 17.
- Staley wants a crack at an elusive state title and Blue Springs will need to be on top of their game to stay close. Falcons by 5.
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