I cannot believe how time flies! My wife and I met at a Hi-Y/Y-Teens party 56 years ago today. She was actually going to the ballet but was asked to fill in with the Y-Teens group because our boys Hi-Y group was so big. She probably still regrets not going to the ballet instead.
But that's not the only thing on my mind this morning. The game results are coming in fast and furious and there have been some notable upsets that totally change the landscape of several class top 10 ratings. So, while I continue to work through those results, I wanted to focus back on the top 10 teams in Missouri. The analysis focuses on classes 4-6 where the really elite teams (teams with a rating above 140) are all eyeing a state championship. Of course, I will restate something that I have said all along. Don't get your nose out of joint because your team is not first on the list. ALL OF THE TEAMS THAT I EVALUATED COULD BE THE STATE CHAMPION FOR THEIR CLASS (EXCEPT THE TEAMS THAT HAVE BEEN INCLUDED EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVE ALREADY BEEN ELIMINATED.
Here are my top 10 plus a couple class five teams in the SW part of Missouri that have been highly rated by the Missouri Basketball Coaches Association poll. I have listed the teams with their weighted rating, their Strength of Schedule (S.O.S), key wins and losses, and their classification.
I still have Westminster Academy on top although they will have a tough opponent in Cardinal Ritter, an upset winner over De Smet, and very capable of upsetting the Wildcats and moving on to another state title. CBC and Vashon follow, tied for second, Staley, Blair Oaks, and Liberty, also tied, Nixa, Kickapoo, Blue Springs, and Father Tolton, also tied. That makes up my top 10. I will cover each team with their team schedule and the game ratings below. LIKE I SAID BEFORE, ANY ONE OF THESE TEAMS COULD WIN THE STATE TITLE IN THEIR CLASS, but the statistics lean toward some teams more than others.
Class FiveI will start with Westminster and Cardinal Ritter, who has been moving up quickly over the last five games with a game rating averaging 140+.
Westminster has just one blemish on a near-perfect season, a bad loss to De Smet at the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament in December. The list of teams they have beaten includes CBC, Vashon, Chaminade, Troy Buchanan, MICDS, and Whitfield. Their raw rating is but I have weighted on those victories and they are 150.5 in my Braggin Rights ratings. Because of a soft conference schedule, their overall strength of schedule is only 121 but they have beaten an impressive group of teams with a smothering defense, and a great balance of outside shooting and slashing to the basket. They are extremely hard to defend and they can be very, very patient on offense. The only thing standing in their way of a state title right now is Cardinal Ritter. If they can turn back upset-minded Ritter, the road actually gets a little easier to state.
Cardinal Ritter has an unbelievable basketball tradition. This team is now just developing into the elite teams of the past after a slow start at 8-8. Although, when you look at those first 16 games, most teams would blanch at scheduling those opponents. Their rating is only 133 for the season but their rating the last five or six games is over 140 so they are the real deal. I would not put it past the Ritter squad to upset Westminster and plow through the rest of the field for another title. Saturday will be a state championship-type game.
I have to mention Bolivar and Parkview, two very fine teams that are highly rated by the MBCA polls. I do not rate them as good as St. Louis and KC teams but I have included their analysis as well. Bolivar should get by Parkview but the road is bumpy to get them to the state title game. They may prove me wrong. Both Parkview and Bolivar are a good 10 point underdog to the other teams analyzed.
Class Six
District 2
CBC has played the toughest schedule in the state at 140 but that includes both the toughest conference in the state and a formidable non-conference schedule. They look like a college team during warmups and they could probably beat most DIII and a lot of DII schools. But while they are a great team, they will have to face some tough competition to get another state title. They are rated +20 for their district game with Eureka but that depends on which Eureka team shows up. The team that upset Parkway West might compete with the Cadets but if the Wildcats spend too much time watching the Cadets warmup, it will be over before the tip-off. John Bol of CBC will be imposing inside with four blocks a game, and he might get 10 but the Cats will have to go right at him, get him in foul trouble early, and then worry about stopping Robert Martin and Larry Hughes Jr. It has been a great season for Eureka to get to 20 wins. Does anybody believe in miracles?
District 3
Chaminade takes on an up and down Francis Howell squad who can beat anybody one night and disappear the next (FHC, U City, Lafayette). Despite losing Tarris Reed and Damion Mayo, 'Nade has been impressive but even they have had their ups and downs. I thought Francis Howell would have a down year but new Coach Grant Agbo has built a great team. I think Chaminade is up for this game and wins by 15. Their reward is a plucky and talented Troy Buchanan team but Chaminade should handle them too but then they run into MCC nemesis CBC and that may be all she wrote.
District 7 and 8
Blue Springs has already won their district and is just waiting for the winner of the District 8 championship game between Liberty and Staley. Blue Springs hasn't played the toughest schedule, and while very good, might not hang with either Liberty or Staley. Time will tell how far the Wildcats can go. Any of these three teams could make the state championship game.
District 8
This district final might be a "state championship" game instead of a district final. Both Staley and Liberty have played similarly tough schedules but Staley won by 16 in a mid-season game and the numbers suggest Staley will win the return contest by four. But four points is just one three-pointer and a free throw from being an upset so don't count out Liberty yet.
District 8 was, by far, the toughest district in the state, with seven teams rated over 130. The road does not get easier as the winner faces Blue Springs and then probably Kickapoo or Nixa. Nobody told me there would be days like this.
District Five
This SW Missouri district final could be another "State" title-type game. Nixa has been strong all year while Kickapoo, the reigning state champion, has been slowly building to the season end. Nixa beat Poo by five in mid-season and they will probably do that again. Their raw rating is as good as Liberty and Staley but their 26 point loss to Blair Oaks dropped their weighted rating. I can see Nixa in the state final vs. CBC but they have a lot of tough games leading up to that possibility.
Class FourI have already talked about Vashon, Blair Oaks, and Father Tolton
HERE. I don't think a lot has changed. The big game will be Blair Oaks and Father Tolton tomorrow, with Blair Oaks getting the nod by six. I expect Vashon and Blair Oaks to have a classic state championship game. With the rugged schedule Vashon has played, I believe that will be the difference-maker in their state championship run.
Blair Oaks can ball and maybe the strength of schedule stat gets in the way of seeing how good they are. They play a weak conference schedule which drops the S.O.S. down to a below-average level. They trounced Nixa by 26 so that tells me they can hang with anyone in the championship bracket.
Father Tolton has prepared themselves with a tough schedule of Missouri and Out-State teams. Their eight defeats do not tell you how good they really are. While Blair Oaks might be a slight favorite, I give Tolton a 40% chance of winning this district title. That victory could launch them to a state title. Time will tell.
Teams that have been eliminated
Class five DeSmet has a rich basketball tradition but has had some tough luck the past few years with district eliminations. One of the better teams in the state, in the top 10 most of the year, and currently at #13, they deserve a shout-out for their excellent season.
Class six Lee's Summit has to be disappointed after a strong start to their season at 17-1 going into February, but going 4-4 down the stretch, losing to a very good Lee's Summit West squad. I have them rated #18 after being in the top five or top ten most of the year. Congrats on a great season.
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