The dust has settled on the 2021-2022 Boys and Girls Missouri basketball play-offs and the trophies have been proudly displayed in a spot in the school trophy case.  Older trophies and plaques have been moved around to make room for the new hardware.  But some of the best teams in Missouri will not be recognized. By best teams, I am talking about the most improved teams in the state.  How do we get at which teams are the most improved, you ask?  Well, I keep the older Gramp's Braggin' Rights ratings in my electronic file and I can compare this past season to the previous season.  And that is what I did....  I looked at the rating from 2020-2021 and the 2021-2022 season to see how much a team improved or worsened from last season to this season.   I also looked at their rank last year compared to this past season. What does that tell me?  It tells me some schools and coaches worked really hard to make their schools better.  M...

 The dust has settled on the 2021-2022 Boys and Girls Missouri basketball play-offs and the trophies have been proudly displayed in a spot in the school trophy case.  Older trophies and plaques have been moved around to make room for the new hardware.  But some of the best teams in Missouri will not be recognized. By best teams, I am talking about the most improved teams in the state.  How do we get at which teams are the most improved, you ask?  Well, I keep the older Gramp's Braggin' Rights ratings in my electronic file and I can compare this past season to the previous season.  And that is what I did....  I looked at the rating from 2020-2021 and the 2021-2022 season to see how much a team improved or worsened from last season to this season.   I also looked at their rank last year compared to this past season. What does that tell me?  It tells me some schools and coaches worked real hard to make their schools better.  Maybe they...

 Starting back in September, I blogged about all of the St. Louis area conferences and a select number of KC conferences where I could get data.  I used a formula that I had developed using VPS (value player score) for returning players, the percentage of returning scoring, and the point differential (points for minus points against) from the year before.  The formula predicted the winning percentage for each team analyzed.  I did not know how well the predictive formula might work.  Now you are going to find out. The theory behind using VPS for returnees is that the VPS values above 1.0 suggest a winning player and that they are doing more positive things (scoring, shooting well, rebounding, making assists, getting steals and blocks) versus negative things (missing shoots, making turnovers, fouling).  I have found that winning has a good correlation to team VPS . One would assume that the more players that are returning to a team, the more successful that...

 It is April Fool's Day but I am not fooling this evening.  I posted prediction stats this week while my wife and I toured all the great museums over in Kansas City but I did not elaborate on any of the stats. It was fun driving over on I-70 and seeing exit signs for all the schools I have rated that are both north and south of the freeway.  I would see a sign for Higginsville and tell my wife about their basketball ratings.  Touring KC, we saw some of the great high schools in the area, and, after touring the Truman Museum over in Independence, we passed another good program but it wasn't Truman High.... William Chrisman High School is just a couple of blocks from the Truman Museum. So HOW did I come up with the statistics for every boys and girls district game and every state playoff game this spring?   Well, I had posted some predictions during late February and early March and averaged over 85% for those contests but I did not post predictions for every...

 I am winding down on high school ratings and contemplating whether to tackle the Summer ratings again, but I am still going back over some statistics from this past season.  Several people have inquired about their team's rating and I have dutifully re-examined several of these requests, not so much for their satisfaction as for mine.  I am usually satisfied with the ratings, unless I find an error in a report table like I did for class two Montgomery County which was showing up with the Palmyra team rating of 91.  I looked at the raw data spreadsheet and Montgomery girls were rated 116 and then I looked at the report table and it was posting Palmyra's rating!  Poor Coach Joe Basinger was pulling his hair out over that 91 rating and that is tough when you keep it as short as he does.  So I don't mind fixing my mistakes.  Measure twice, cut once.  Right? Now some of the requests just turn ugly because I know the questioner won't like my answer aft...

 Justin @Ima_little_loud was questioning the placement of Salisbury and NE Cairo in my earlier blog on the Missouri Basketball Coaches Association poll and my ratings of each class.  Justin claim was that Salisbury beat NE Cairo by 32 earlier in the season and NE Cairo lost their first district game to Van Far by 3 and should not even be ranked.  NE Cairo did beat Salisbury by two in a rematch. I went back through both schedules and here is my re-analysis of both teams. NE Cairo had a weighted 118 rating in my final class two poll (rounded up to 118).  Reviewing their schedule below, their opponents rated at 95.  They finished 21-6 although their points for/points against would suggest a higher winning percentage.  Using the Pts For/Pts Against Pythagrean formula , their winning percentage predicted at 99.6% but the large point differential may be an outcome of a weak schedule.   Their consistency score (+/- 16.5) was fairly large for a elite team...

 One of the disclaimers on the MBCA website is " If your team should be ranked, send an email and explain why.  The goal is to promote teams, never to exc lude! ".  My whole intent during the year in comparing MBCA polls to Gramps Braggin Rights ratings was not to embarrass anyone but to highlight teams that were worthy but missing from the MBCA poll. I don't know if I accomplished that but their poll and my rankings match up pretty darn good at the end of the season.  It may be that the state playoffs helped align my ratings with their poll, or maybe, Gramps ratings were on target with the play-offs and state championship games, and the coaches poll finally caught up.   It really does not matter as long as the right teams are somewhere in the MBCA poll and, for some teams, like class 5 Smithville's or class 3 West County Leadwoods' girls' teams, their fourth-place trophy takes precedent over being ranked 6th (in the MBCA poll) or  11th or 12th in Gram...