If you have followed the last five blog posts, I have been analyzing Kansas City Missouri teams using a winning percentage predictive formulas containing VPS, point differential, opponent scoring, and returnee scoring.  You can find the suburban predictions at these links:   White ,  Gold ,  Blue ,  Red   Independents I have looked at every team in Kansas City so apologies to the Kansas side teams and to any other school not in the suburban conferences but here are the teams and their pre-season ratings for the teams that I have analyzed.  I will start full ratings of all Missouri teams sometime in December. Enjoy and good luck to all teams.

 I have looked at the four Kansas City Suburban Conferences and picked out a select few independent teams to analyze for this coming season.  I looked at Barstow, Rockhurst, Pembroke Hill, and Summit Academy for returnees, VPS, point differential, and opponent scoring and put together win-loss predictions for the 2021-2022 season based upon a formula I developed for St. Louis area teams.  It is statistics on steroids and it may be out in left field, but you have to start somewhere and I prefer to start with statistical history and predict on that rather than some fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants approach that some people utilize. Here are the four independent teams and I also added the four suburban conference summaries to it.  You can find the suburban predictions at these links:  White , Gold , Blue , Red You can find my pre-season ratings for Kansas City Missouri area teams right HERE Remember, it's all for fun.  The guys still have to play the games and ra...

  Happy Thanksgiving to all.   As I mentioned in one of my first blogs,  I started to put the St. Louis Area boys teams together starting in August and was contacted by Coach Eric Bennaka, of Smithville, after he saw the statistics-based prediction model I was doing.  He asked about Smithville's prognostication for 2021-2022 and I sent him my analysis.  Since then, I have gone over several KC Suburban boys leagues and a few KC independent schools. For those unfamiliar with my work, I rated all classes of both the Missouri boys and girls basketball teams last year and then predicted about 80% of the winners throughout the playoffs.  The ratings include about 550 boys and 530 girls teams.  I will start those ratings again soon. I put together a prediction model based upon VPS, point differential, defensive points allowed, and percent return scoring.  You can find an explanation  HERE .  With this mathematical model, I have analyzed ea...

Happy Thanksgiving to all.   As I mentioned in my first blogs,  I started to put the St. Louis Area boys teams together starting in August and was contacted by Coach Eric Bennaka, of Smithville, after he saw the statistics-based prediction model I was doing.  He asked about Smithville's prognostication for 2021-2022 and I sent him my analysis.  Since then, I have gone over several KC Suburban boys leagues and a few KC independent schools. For those unfamiliar with my work, I rated all classes of both the Missouri boys and girls basketball teams last year and then predicted about 80% of the winners throughout the playoffs.  The ratings include about 550 boys and 530 girls teams.  I will start those ratings again soon. I put together a prediction model based upon VPS, point differential, defensive points allowed, and percent return scoring.  You can find an explanation  HERE .  With this mathematical model, I have analyzed each of the KC G...

Happy Thanksgiving to all. As I mentioned in my first KC posting, I started to put the St. Louis Area boys teams together starting in August and was contacted by Coach Eric Bennaka, of Smithville, after he saw the statistics-based prediction model I was doing.  He asked about Smithville's prognostication for 2021-2022 and I sent him my analysis.  Since then, I have gone over several KC Suburban boys leagues and a few KC independent schools. For those unfamiliar with my work, I rated all classes of both the Missouri boys and girls basketball teams last year and then predicted about 80% of the winners throughout the playoffs.  The ratings include about 550 boys and 530 girls teams.  I will start those ratings again soon. I put together a prediction model based upon VPS, point differential, defensive points allowed, and percent return scoring.  You can find an explanation  HERE .  With this mathematical model, I have analyzed each of the KC Red teams usin...

Happy Thanksgiving to all.  I started to put the St. Louis Area boys teams together starting in August and was contacted by Coach Eric Bennaka, of Smithville, after he saw the statistics-based prediction model I was doing.  He asked about Smithville's prognostication for 2021-2022 and I sent him my analysis.  Since then, I have gone over several KC Suburban boys leagues and a few KC independent schools. For those unfamiliar with my work, I rated all classes of both the Missouri boys and girls basketball teams last year and then predicted about 80% of the winners throughout the playoffs.  The ratings include about 550 boys and 530 girls teams.  I will start those ratings again soon. I put together a prediction model based upon VPS, point differential, defensive points allowed, and percent return scoring.  You can find an explanation HERE .  With this mathematical model, I have analyzed each of the KC White teams using info from the KC HS Hoops website ....

 I don't have a lot of team statistics for individual players in these conferences so I used the team point differential and defensive points allowed to estimate win-loss records and ratings. In the Jefferson County conference, look for Festus to continue their winning ways of last year.    Desoto, Windsor and Hillsboro have had strong basketball traditions but there may be some rebuilding with those teams. In the Mineral Area Large schools, it is North County hands down.  I can see North County winning all their games this year but that is always a tough proposition.  Ste. Gen and Farmington will be tough and I expect Park Hills Central to rebound from a down year last year. In the Mineral Area Small school conference, look out for Valle Catholic.  While Valle has been a traditionally great football school, the hardcourt team will be tough to handle.  Arcadia Valley and Valley Caledonia will be tough opponents in their small school schedule but won't ...

 Check out all my conferences HERE While I have been focused on boys' basketball conferences, there are some independent schools in St. Louis that need some analysis.  Today's analysis looks at two very good charter schools in the downtown area, Confluence Preparatory Academy, a couple of blocks north of St. Louis City Hall, and Lift for Life Academy Charter on Broadway just south of Busch Stadium.   Both schools have great boys basketball programs and Lift for Life has an equally good girls program.  Brian Karvinen has been coaching Confluence since about 2016 and is an intense but caring coach who lives and dies with his players.  For some of these city kids, Brian is not only a head coach, but sometimes a father figure, counselor, chauffeur, dietician, clothier, and life coach.  Before Karvinen joined the staff at Confluence, not too many people even knew that Confluence had a boy's basketball team.  Brian has put them on the map. Brian does no...

 It is getting close.  It's almost time.  The first tip-offs for Jamborees and full games start next week. There is always speculation about which teams are going to be good and which teams are not.  I have seen some interesting pre-season rankings of various conferences that raised my eyebrows.  Most of these polls are speculative.  They do not put a lot of effort into digging into the teams, past statistics, who is returning, etc. etc.  They get a lot of feedback, some of it "likes" and some of it hooting and hollering. I do not like to speculate.  If you have followed me this fall, I have spent the past two months analyzing most of the St. Louis area conferences and a few over in Kansas City.  I am hoping www.810varsity.com will pick up those analyses before I publish anything over here.  I have not gotten all of the conferences and I probably should but I rely on good statistics from the Post-Dispatch or KCSports to formulate my rati...